Quick Answer: Young students learn probability best through the vocabulary of "Certain, Likely, Unlikely, and Impossible." Start with physical manipulatives like M&Ms or colored blocks pulling from a bag, then graduate to digital spinners and coin flips.
Vocabulary Step: The Impossible/Certain Line
Draw a line on the board. One side is "Impossible" (0), the middle is "Equal Chance" (1/2), the end is "Certain" (1). Have students place sticky notes on the line for events: "A dinosaur walks in" (Impossible). "The sun sets tonight" (Certain). "Flipping heads on a coin" (Equal).
Activity: The Mystery Bag
Put 9 red blocks and 1 blue block in a bag. Let students pull a block, record it, and place it back. Ask: "Is it impossible to pull the blue block?" No. "Is it likely?" No, it is unlikely. This teaches that low probability does not equal impossibility.
Activity: Build Your Own Spinner
Have students color a circle graph. If they want red to win a game, they should color 3/4 of the circle red, and 1/4 yellow. Test it with a digital random spinner tool to prove that the larger area results in a higher frequency of hits.